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Prediction for CME (2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-11-16T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9706/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a second filament eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 02UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T19:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 4.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Nov 17 0841 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
The double filament eruption of late November 15 produced a double CME towards the South West. As reported yesterday, the first appearance in SoHO/LASCO C2 is at 23:24UT. Subsequent coronagraph images now show that the angular extent of this first CME is rather limited. However, the core of the CME corresponding to the second filament eruption is visible from 3:12 UT November 16 onwards. It is directed primarily in SouthWest direction and reaches an angular extent of around 180 degrees. Projected speeds are higher than that of the first CME and between 600-700 km/s.
Cactus failed to detect the second CME within the earlier detection.
A glancing blow or shock arrival from the second CME can be expected around noon November 18.
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Lead Time: 34.72 hour(s)
Difference: 6.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-11-17T08:41Z

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